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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona

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2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
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Main article: 2024 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with 2024 Arizona Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arizona. This election was the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a Senate election was held in Arizona after 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. Democratic U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego defeated Republican former news journalist Kari Lake to succeed Democrat-turned-independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, who did not seek a second term.[1]

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Sinema, who was elected as a Democrat, was considered vulnerable to a primary challenge due to frequently opposing her party's legislative agenda. After preparing a re-election bid as an independent, Sinema announced she would retire from the Senate.[2][1] Lake, the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, won her party's nomination with 55% of the vote against Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb. The election was considered among the most competitive Senate races in 2024.[3]

Most polls and ratings had Gallego as the favorite to win.[4][5] Gallego defeated Lake by 2.41 percentage points, a closer race than polls had projected for most of the campaign. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's wider-than-expected victory in the state likely contributed to this, but there was also a significant amount of ticket splitting between the presidential and senatorial races.

Gallego outperformed Kamala Harris by the fourth largest margin among Democratic Senate candidates in 2024, and the largest margin for a non-incumbent.[6] Gallego received 93,475 more votes than Kamala Harris, while Lake received 174,481 fewer votes than Donald Trump. This election marked the fourth consecutive election cycle in which Democrats won a Senate election in Arizona.

This was the first time that Arizona voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Dennis DeConcini was reelected as Republican George H. W. Bush carried the state in 1988. Gallego also became the first Latino elected to the Senate from Arizona, a state with a large Latino population.[7]

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Background

Arizona was once considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. As of May 2024, Democrats control the governorship, most other statewide offices, and both U.S. Senate seats, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and a 6–3 majority of Arizona's U.S. House delegation.[8][9] Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[10] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[11]

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Democratic primary

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Prior to her departure from the Democratic Party, Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[12] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the Senate filibuster rule in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.[13] Sinema did not support the Inflation Reduction Act until after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[14] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[15]

Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent, while continuing to be counted as part of the Senate Democratic Caucus.[2]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Endorsements

Ruben Gallego

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Political parties

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Alexander Keller

Ruben Gallego vs. Kate Gallego vs. Kathy Hoffman vs. Regina Romero vs. Kyrsten Sinema vs. Greg Stanton

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
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Republican primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kari Lake

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Mark Lamb

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of July 10, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Lake
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Lamb
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Green primary

The Arizona Green Party endorsed the write-in campaign of Quintana and was "actively opposed" to Hernandez and Norton's campaigns.[123] A press release on the national Green Party's website states that party leaders allege that Norton is a plant for the Democratic Party and that Hernandez is a plant for the Republican Party.[124]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Mike Norton, nonprofit executive[125]
  • Arturo Hernandez[75]

Endorsements

Eduardo Heredia Quintana

Political parties

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...

Results

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Independents

Candidates

Declined

Endorsements

Kyrsten Sinema (declined to run)

U.S. senators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024, Candidate ...
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General election

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Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Post-primary endorsements

Ruben Gallego (D)

Executive branch officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors

Organizations

Kari Lake (R)

U.S. Senators

Governors

Local officials

Organizations

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Post-primary fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
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More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake vs. "An Independent / third-party candidate"

Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright vs. Kyrsten Sinema

Results

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On November 9, 2024, Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallego had won the Senate election in Arizona.[262] On November 12, 2024, the Associated Press projected that Gallego had defeated Lake as well.[7]

By congressional district

Gallego won five of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans.[263]

More information District, Gallego ...
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By county

More information County, Ruben Gallego Democratic ...
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Notes

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  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Someone else" with 6%
  3. Elizabeth Jean Reye with 3%
  4. Brian Wright with 6%; George Nicholson with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  7. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%
  8. Quintana (G) with 2%
  9. "Other" with 4%
  10. Quintana (G) with 1%
  11. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Refused" with 2%; "I did not vote on US Senate" with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 8%
  13. "Other" with 5%; "Neither" with 1%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. "Another candidate" with 1%
  16. "Someone Else" with 2%
  17. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  18. "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  20. "Other" with 3%
  21. "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  22. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  23. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Quintana (G) with 1%
  24. "Other" with 1%
  25. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  26. Quintana (G) with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  27. "Other" and Quintana (G) with 1%
  28. "Another candidate" with 2%
  29. "Someone Else" with 4%
  30. "Other" with 6%; "Neither" with 2%
  31. Quintana (G) with 2%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  32. "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  33. "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  34. Norton (G) with 3%
  35. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. "Other" with 7%
  37. Quintana (G) with 9%
  38. "Other" with 5%
  39. Hernandez (G) with 4%; "Other" with 3%
  40. "Someone else" with 13%
  41. "Wouldn't vote" with 4%
  42. "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  43. "Someone else" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. This poll was sponsored by Primary Sinema
  2. Poll sponsored by the Bull Moose Project.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  5. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  6. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  7. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  8. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  9. Poll commissioned by AARP
  10. Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
  11. Poll sponsored by Democracy Defense Project
  12. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  13. Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  14. Poll sponsored by USA Today
  15. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth, which has endorsed Lake.
  16. Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Lake's campaign.
  17. Poll sponsored by The Hill and Nexstar
  18. Poll sponsored by the Clean & Prosperous America PAC.
  19. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  20. Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  21. Poll sponsored by Lake's campaign.
  22. Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  23. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  24. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  25. Poll sponsored by Replace Sinema PAC.
  26. Poll sponsored by NRSC.
  27. Poll sponsored by Gallego's campaign
  28. This poll was sponsored by Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC
  29. Poll sponsored by Americas PAC, which supports Republican candidates.
  30. Poll conducted for Stand for Children, a non-profit education advocacy group.
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References

External links

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